CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs Update (Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Mars, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-01-29T18:35:26Z
## Message ID: 20240129-AL-010
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20240129-AL-009), now simulated with CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001.

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-01-29T02:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~936 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 20 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 65/12 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001

2: O-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-01-29T04:38Z.

Estimated speed: ~1277 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 54 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 64/3 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the combined leading edge of CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 and CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may impact OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-01-30T09:52Z (plus minus 7 hours). Additionally, the leading edge or flank of the CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may impact Lucy at 2024-02-02T23:43Z, STEREO A at 2024-01-31T04:02Z, and Mars (glancing blow) at 2024-02-02T02:00Z (plus minus 7 hours).

The simulation also indicates that the CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 may have a glancing blow at NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the flank of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-01-31T08:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 and 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001):

(a) 2 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

(b) 5.5 AU outer boundary
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240129_052200_5.5_ENLIL_CONE_Juno_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

Updated CME analysis and simulation results for CME with ID: 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 do not show an impact to Psyche, as previously indicated in a prior notification (see notification 20240129-AL-009).

The CME with ID 2024-01-29T02:00:00-CME-001 is associated with the M1.2 flare with ID 2024-01-29T01:29:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N30W61) which peaked at 2024-01-29T01:40Z.

The CME with ID 2024-01-29T04:38:00-CME-001 is associated with the M6.8 flare with ID 2024-01-29T03:54:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13559 (N25W70) which peaked at 2024-01-29T04:38Z (see notifications 20240129-AL-001 and 20240129-AL-003), SEP at STEREO A with ID 2024-01-29T05:11:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-002 and 20240129-AL-004), modeled SEP prediction from REleASE: ACE/EPAM 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T05:50:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-005), SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 15.8-39.8 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:06:00-SEP-001, SEP at SOHO: COSTEP 28.2-50.1 MeV with ID 2024-01-29T06:08:00-SEP-001 (see notification 20240129-AL-007), and SEP at GOES-P with ID 2024-01-29T06:15:00-SEP-001 (see notifications 20240129-AL-006 and 20240129-AL-008).


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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